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Out-of-sample performance of recession probability models
2018; and Favara, Gilchrist, Lewis, and Zakrajsek, 2016). To assess the...0.5. AUROC is equal to the probability that the value of πππ‘π‘ conditioned
Type: Memos
( PDF)
URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/f...
The Fed - December 14, 2022: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
0.5 0.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 0.4β0.5 0.4β1.0 1.3β2.0 1.6β2.0 1.7β2.0 0.2β0.5 -0.5...2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Longer run Actual 2.8 2.3 2.6
Type: Chairman's FOMC Press Conferences
(205K HTML)
URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/f...
Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool
FOMCβs macroeconomic assessments in its FG. Campbell and others (2012)...FOMCβs FG in late 2011 and 2012 communicated the Committeeβs assessment
Type: Memos
( PDF)
URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/f...
The Fed - September 17, 2015: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer Run Actual 2.7 1.7 1.3 2.5 2.5...2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer Run Actual 9.5 8.7 7.8 7.0 5.7
Type: Chairman's FOMC Press Conferences
(51K HTML)
URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/f...
The Fed - September 22, 2021: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Longer run Actual 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.6 -...2.3 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 4.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0 Median
Type: Chairman's FOMC Press Conferences
(195K HTML)
URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/f...
How Robust Are the Alternative Strategies to Key Alternative Assumptions?
FOMC β Restricted (FR) Page 1 of 31 How Robust Are the Alternative Strategies...FOMC β Restricted (FR) Page 2 of 31 expectations formation. In general
Type: Memos
( PDF)
URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/f...
The Fed - March 17, 2021: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
23 and over the longer run Change in real GDP Percent 2016 2017 2018 2019...2.3 2.3 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.3 2.1 2.2 Median - -
Type: Chairman's FOMC Press Conferences
(177K HTML)
URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/f...
The Fed - December 13, 2023: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
2.3 2.0 3.6β3.9 2.5β2.8 2.0β2.4 2.0β2.3 3.5β4.2 2.3β3.6 2.0β3.0 2.0β2.9...2.3 2.0 Upper End of Central Tendency - - - - - 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 Median
Type: Chairman's FOMC Press Conferences
(194K HTML)
URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/f...
The Fed - March 22, 2023: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Longer run Actual 2.3 2.6 -1.5...0.5 1 -0.4 - -0.3 1 -0.2 - -0.1 3 0.0 - 0.1 1 2 0.2 - 0.3 4 1 0.4 - 0.5
Type: Chairman's FOMC Press Conferences
(183K HTML)
URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/f...
The Fed - September 18, 2024: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version
2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2β2.4 2.1β2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1β2.7 2.1β2.4 2.0β2.2...2.3 2.0 2.0 2.5β2.9 2.2β2.4 2.0β2.1 2.0 2.5β3.0 2.2β2.5 2.0β2.3 2.0 Core
Type: Chairman's FOMC Press Conferences
(182K HTML)
URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/f...