Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

pay depositors below-market rates (Drechsler et al., 2017), making deposits...Treasury yields (FOMC, 2013). A key identification challenge is that our

yields for the market as well as for value and growth portfolios. Our ...market equity yields into expected growth and risk premium components,

market funds (MMFs)—and show that this constraint can bind more tightly...gap. We jointly model the demand for reserves by banks and the supply

brick-and-mortar and online retailers and also contain a rich set of household...gap disproportion- ally larger for low-income households. We compute this

market and macro variables observed in the data. Our analysis yields two...pays off: the first principle component of our model-implied gaps explains

Treasury yields rose 25 to 30 basis points, driven by corresponding increases...Treasury yields rose, driven by increases in real yields. Short-term 4

stars—and a component that responds to cyclical shocks. While cyclical...setup that does not allow for scarring, which we refer to as the “benchmark

errors—and, to a weaker extent, market-based forecast errors—are systematically...gap between current expectations and lagged SEP projections, even after

gap by leveraging publicly disclosed information from the six major market...PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PayPal), Sezzle, Inc. (Sezzle), and Zip Co Ltd

gap, inflation gap, or the natural real rate of interest 𝑟𝑟𝑡𝑡∗). Depending...gap (defined as actual output minus potential output), and 𝑢𝑢𝑡𝑡 is