Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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• The Fed - The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions

  GDP growth, term premiums, probit PDF: Full Paper Disclaimer: The economic

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-yield-curve-and-predicting-recessions.htm
  



• The Fed - Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants

  GDP growth and natural rates of interest have occurred over the past 25

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/measuring-the-natural-rate-of-interest-international-trends-and-determinants.htm
  



• The Fed - The Effects of Mortgage Prepayments on M2

  GDP as measured by M2 velocity is also increased. Refinancing prepayments

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-effects-of-mortgage-prepayments-on-m2.htm
  



• The Fed - The Household Spending Response to the 2003 Tax Cut: Evidence from Survey Data

  GDP in the second half of 2003 by 0.2 percent and by 0.3 percent in the

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-household-spending-response-to-the-2003-tax-cut-evidence-from-survey-data.htm
  



• The Fed - Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility

  GDP growth and corporate credit spreads using a stochastic volatility

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/macroeconomic-and-financial-risks-a-tale-of-mean-and-volatility.htm
  



• The Fed - Sharing Asymmetric Tail Risk: Smoothing, Asset Prices and Terms of Trade

  GDP-growth across countries, the model suggests non-negligible quantitative

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/sharing-asymmetric-tail-risk-smoothing-asset-prices-and-terms-of-trade.htm
  



• The Fed - Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth

  GDP to investment, whether such investment will become less productive

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/challenges-for-the-future-of-chinese-economic-growth.htm
  



• The Fed - The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy

  GDP, and employment to regional and sectoral productivity changes. We

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/the-impact-of-regional-and-sectoral-productivity-changes-on-the-us-economy.htm
  



• The Fed - The Corporate Saving Glut in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis

  GDP growth, interest rates, profits, and other relevant determinants.

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/the-corporate-saving-glut-in-the-aftermath-of-the-global-financial-crisis.htm
  



• Summary of Economic Projections -- March 15-16, 2016

  GDP December projection Unemployment rate December projection PCE infation...GDP) and projections for both measures of infation are percent changes

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20160316SEPcompilation.pdf
  

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