Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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• Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation

  inflation expressed as deviations from the baseline forecast. This allows

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026033pap.pdf
  



• Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy

  inflation target. An agent who perceives higher future inflation also ...Inflation disagreement; inflation expectations; heterogeneous beliefs;

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2024094pap.pdf
  



• Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference -- April 29, 2026

  Inflation has moved up and is elevated, in part reflecting the recent ...inflation goals. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260429.pdf
  



• Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

  Inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf
  



• How Stable are Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area? Evidence from the Euro-Area Financial Markets

  inflation expectations implied by the French nominal and inflation-indexed...inflation and inflation risk. Inflation compensation hence provides a

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2025041pap.pdf
  



• Double Inertia, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Gradualism

  inflation, a rapid hiking cycle from 2022 to 2024, and a subsequent easing...inflation than supply-driven inflation. Nakamura et al. (2025) compare

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026036pap.pdf
  



• The Causal Effect of Debt on Interest Rates

  inflation and an output gap of zero. 3 term premiums on the probability

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2026031pap.pdf
  



• Federal Reserve Board - Oil Price Pass-Through into Core Inflation Accessible Data

  Inflation Accessible Data Figure 1: Oil price pass-through into core inflation...inflation Year US EA HD up down HD up down 1997 0.00 0.01 -0.02 -0.01

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/oil-price-pass-through-into-core-inflation-accessible-20171019.htm
  



• Federal Reserve Board - Monetary Policy, Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities, Accessible Data

  Inflation Outlook, and Recession Probabilities, Accessible Data Figure...Inflation Slope Date Nominal NTFS Policy Gap + Inflation Slope Unconditional

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/monetary-policy-inflation-outlook-and-recession-probabilities-accessible-20220712.htm
  



• Federal Reserve Board - Raising the Inflation Target: Lessons from Japan Accessible Data

  Inflation Target: Lessons from Japan Accessible Data Figure 1: Inflation...inflation target in Japan Year-on-year percent change Quarter CPI, less

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/raising-the-inflation-target-lessons-from-japan-accessible-20200108.htm
  

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