Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

key developments. Rapidly changing technology has reduced the cost of ...best we can, a stable overall macroeconomic background to facilitate the

Compared to what we are now experiencing, this scenario was less severe...be—and is—to understand the implications of quite plausible downside scenarios

price levels of COVID-19-sensitive sectors and, coincidentally, also measures...price-cost markups—the employment data I look at, such as the Kansas City

and the unemployment rate declined to 4-3/4 percent. Since the spring ...compared with about 190,000 in 2006. To date, job cutbacks have been centered

prices in major U.S. cities that are highly exposed to demand from China...the volatility implied by the conditional distributions), and risk (the

price-setters are forward looking, the temporary overheating of the economy...and, potentially, inflation picks up. Market participants may doubt the

Compared to its central role in policy discussions in the United States...key factor. Although in a policy setting it is necessary to estimate the

key macroeconomic variables such as output, the unemployment rate, in ...compare and validate our model specifications using pseudo out-of-sample

key findings. First, our high-frequency data confirm that banks with high...compared to only 7 cents on average). Third, in addition to funding loan

key issues. First, do VAR-based confidence intervals accurately reflect...compare with their nominal size? We address these questions using data