Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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• The Fed - Estimating Probabilities of Recession in Real Time Using GDP and GDI

  changed over the past couple of decades. The models increasingly define

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/estimating-probabilities-of-recession-in-real-time-using-gdp-and-gdi.htm
  



• The Fed - Forecasting Exogenous Fiscal Variables in the United States

  changes in the context of extending recent empirical work of Alan Auerbach

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/forecasting-exogenous-fiscal-variables-in-the-united-states.htm
  



• The Fed - Modeling Money Market Spreads: What Do We Learn about Refinancing Risk?

  changed radically. As a result, borrowers preferred to obtain funding

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/modeling-money-market-spreads-what-do-we-learn-about-refinancing-risk.htm
  



• The Fed - Nominal Mortgage Contracts and the Effects of Inflation on Portfolio Allocation

  change in the real value of the mortgage payments from taking on a new

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/nominal-mortgage-contracts-and-the-effects-of-inflation-on-portfolio-allocation.htm
  



• The Fed - On the Negatives of Negative Interest Rates

  changes in negative vs positive territory. Keywords: Monetary policy,

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/on-the-negatives-of-negative-interest-rates.htm
  



• The Fed - The Effects of Megamergers on Efficiency and Prices: Evidence from a Bank Profit Function

  changes in prices were found to be very small. Keywords: Bank, merger,

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-effects-of-megamergers-on-efficiency-and-prices-evidence-from-a-bank-profit-function.htm
  



• The Fed - Volatility, Money Market Rates, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

  changes in the Libor-OIS spread during the financial crisis. We also demonstrate

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/volatility-money-market-rates-and-the-transmission-of-monetary-policy.htm
  



• The Fed - What Did the Credit Market Expect of Argentina Default? Evidence from Default Swap Data

  changes in the business cycle, the U.S. and Argentine credit conditions

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/what-did-the-credit-market-expect-of-argentina-default-evidence-from-default-swap-data.htm
  



• The Fed - Prices for Communications Equipment: Rewriting the Record

  change, wireless technology, communications technology, communications

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/prices-for-communications-equipment-rewriting-the-record.htm
  



• The Fed - Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

  change in the composition of external finance: Net debt issuance falls

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/credit-market-sentiment-and-the-business-cycle.htm
  

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