Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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• The Fed - Three Great American Disinflations

  1870s) rather than a sudden change in policy (as in 1920-21). In contrast

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/three-great-american-disinflations.htm
  



• The Fed - Inflation Dynamics and International Linkages: A Model of the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan

  U.S. inflation dynamics. We are unable to fit Calvo-style contracts to

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/inflation-dynamics-and-international-linkages-a-model-of-the-united-states-the-euro-area-and-japan.htm
  



• The Fed - Variance Risk Premium Components and International Stock Return Predictability

  U.S. downside and upside variance risk premiums (DVP and UVP, respectively

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/variance-risk-premium-components-and-international-stock-return-predictability.htm
  



• The Fed - Evidence Uncovered: Long-Term Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, and the Expectations Theory

  U.S. data. This paper asks more narrowly whether the theory holds conditional

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/evidence-uncovered-long-term-interest-rates-monetary-policy-and-the-expectations-theory.htm
  



• The Fed - Modeling Direct Investment Valuation Adjustments and Estimating Quarterly Positions

  U.S. direct investment valuation adjustments. We develop a methodology

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/modeling-direct-investment-valuation-adjustments-and-estimating-quarterly-positions.htm
  



• The Fed - Policy Rules, Information, and Fiscal Effects in a "Ricardian" Model

  U.S. data and reinterpret existing reduced-form studies in light of the

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/policy-rules-information-and-fiscal-effects-in-a-quotricardianquot-model.htm
  



• The Fed - Real Shocks and Real Exchange Rates in Really Long-Term Data

  U.S. dollar-U.K. pound exchange rate, analyzing 130 years of data. I first

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/real-shocks-and-real-exchange-rates-in-really-long-term-data.htm
  



• The Fed - Monetary Policy and Homeownership: Empirical Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications

  U.S. homeownership rate and that monetary policy affects households' housing

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/monetary-policy-and-homeownership-empirical-evidence-theory-policy-implications.htm
  



• The Fed - The Contributions of Domestic and External Factors to Latin American Devaluation Crises: An Early Warning Systems Approach

  s crises. Several probit models of balance-of-payments crises, based on

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/the-contributions-of-domestic-and-external-factors-to-latin-american-devaluation-crises-an-early-warning-systems-approach.htm
  



• The Fed - Why is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?

  s ability to produce goods and services for final consumption from given

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/why-is-productivity-procyclical-why-do-we-care.htm
  

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