Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

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• The Fed - GDP Trend-cycle Decompositions Using State-level Data

  U.S. output gap reached about -8% during the Great Recession and is about

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/gdp-trend-cycle-decompositions-using-state-level-data.htm
  



• The Fed - Take it to the Limit: The Debt Ceiling and Treasury Yields

  U.S. debt limit impasses to examine the extent to which investors react

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/take-it-to-the-limit-the-debt-ceiling-and-treasury-yields.htm
  



• The Fed - A Promised Value Approach to Optimal Monetary Policy

  S. Hills, Taisuke Nakata, and Takeki Sunakawa Abstract: This paper characterizes

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/a-promised-value-approach-to-optimal-monetary-policy.htm
  



• The Fed - Can Macro Variables Used in Stress Testing Forecast the Performance of Banks?

  U.S. bank holding companies help improve out of sample forecasts of chargeoffs

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/can-macro-variables-used-in-stress-testing-forecast-the-performance-of-banks.htm
  



• The Fed - Consolidation and Merger Activity in the United States Banking Industry from 2000 through 2010

  U.S. banking industry has consistently experienced over 150 mergers annually

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/consolidation-and-merger-activity-in-the-united-states-banking-industry-from-2000-through-2010.htm
  



• The Fed - The Correlation between Money and Output in the United Kingdom: Resolution of a Puzzle

  1970s and shifts in the terms of trade during the interwar period are

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-correlation-between-money-and-output-in-the-united-kingdom-resolution-of-a-puzzle.htm
  



• The Fed - A Tale of Two Option Markets: Pricing Kernels and Volatility Risk

  S&P 500 options and recently introduced VIX options, we study asset pricing

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/a-tale-of-two-option-markets-pricing-kernels-and-volatility-risk.htm
  



• The Fed - Forward-Looking Monetary Policy and the Transmission of Conventional Monetary Policy Shocks

  1980s, a contractionary conventional monetary policy shock generates smaller

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/forward-looking-monetary-policy-and-the-transmission-of-conventional-monetary-policy-shocks.htm
  



• The Fed - The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation: Evidence from 35 Years of Benefits Extensions

  1970s. To identify these estimates, we examine how exit rates from unemployment

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-effects-of-unemployment-benefits-on-unemployment-and-labor-force-participation.htm
  



• The Fed - The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts

  s forecasting power arises from its signal of downside risks to economic

  URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-power-of-narratives-in-economic-forecasts.htm
  

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