Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Jackson Hole speech, a revised version of that document was issued in ...Jackson Hole, Wyo., August 22, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents

futures forecast. We also assess CPI and unemployment forecasts relative...hole that Kalshi fills. Fifth, with access to full distributions, we uncover

Jackson Hole, Wyoming.2 The last two decades provide an especially useful...expectations, more focus on monetary aggregates, less reliance on policy

Jackson Hole, Wyoming Share I am delighted to be here in Jackson Hole ...futures markets suggest that the level of oil prices is expected to remain

Expectations Eric Engstrom 2026-026 Please cite this paper as: Engstrom...errors—and, to a weaker extent, market-based forecast errors—are systematically

index rose 3.8 percent over the 12 months ending in April. That reading...futures, expect that oil and gasoline prices should decline, to some extent

expectations. Using large language models to quantify central bank content...expectations about future policy. Keywords: central bank communication

and, hence, the growth of the labor force. This change in immigration,...And, in fact, payroll gains have alternated between positive and negative

And, despite some concerns on Wall Street about whether AI demand will...And, they stand well above their averages at times when inflation was

intangibles—and, ultimately, supporting employment. By stimulating demand...expectations and provide context to economic data, helping shape my views